Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Drives Villa's Unlikely Push for Glory
It was eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his displays were an indicator or the reason for Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. As the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a 10th successive win , having failed to win any of their first six matches, now sit a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to answer. History, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
Per Opta, in only two games have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have just won ten consecutive victories, they look weirdly vulnerable – however right now the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping their star man to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival the club have to face in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.