A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
